Gasoline shortage, or a House of Cards?

Well, you know what they say...curiosity killed the cat,
and I love cats. One cat in particular taught me a lot
about life, and death.

Anyway, it was my curiosity that has lead to a big hole
in the oilzone layer. Someone doesn't know basic
mathematics. You know, one-plus-one-equals-two? (It
still does that, doesn't it? Possibly not. Some days it
seems to equal 6, other days it seems to equal someone
in China sneezing or someone in Nigeria or Venezuela
taking a taxi instead of the bicycle to work.
Whatever is convenient and keeps the pot stirred.)

Searching through various government websites, several
agricultural websites and a few petroleum websites,
I have learned that the average cost of one barrel of
crude oil in 2004 was $36.00.

Ok, moving right along...

I also learned that in almost every report by any
agency, there is significant jumping around between
barrels and gallons, also between thousand of barrels
and millions of barrels and between days, weeks and
months.
"Significant," meaning, as in sentence number 1 talks
about barrels, but sentence number 2 refers to gallons.
Sentence number 3 refers to crude oil and sentence
number 4 refers to Oxengynated oil. That is all very
interesting in understanding that the reporter knows
his vocabulary. It is very frustrating in trying to
follow the flow of information as concerns only
one aspect of this convoluted mess. But then, perhaps,
ones' action follows ones' intent. On occasion, you
might even encounter one sentence refering to two
different measurements but equating them as if they
were the same. For a simple example you might see,
"We are continually coming up short because even
though we receive 14.5 million barrels a day, the
consumption in this country is 59.7 million gallons
each day!" What this dismisses is the fact that 59.7
million gallons is extracted from only 3.1 million
barrels of crude oil, not 14.5 million BARRELS. Big
difference.
Regarless, upon reading about the above cost of one
barrel of crude in 2004, my mind immediately jumped to,
not so much the 'costs' involved in oil, but to the
question "how many gallons of gas can you get out of
just one barrel of crude oil?' It seemed to me that
it would be easier to 'follow' one barrel and its'
contents than it would to try to follow millions of
barrels of 41 varieties of processed oil dispersed
across a 78,000 mile network of pipelines and highways
with spigots at every 35-mile marker (just following
the lead of other reports.).

Therefore, this 'report' will concentrate on figures
provided mainly by the government on barrels of crude
oil converted to gallons per barrel and will be based
on a monthly time frame. It is really simple. Convert
all figures to the same time frame, concentrate on
only one measurement, and concentrate on only one type
of product.

Most websites concerning petroleum are coated in many
layers of price structures, taxes, imports, exports,
production, interruptions, costs, etc. Other websites
appear to be heading directly for the answer you seek
and then veers off into various methods of processing
crude oil, their by-products, and wind up with more
coatings of smoke and a few more mirrors.

From one pictorial chart of a barrel of crude oil, you
can figure out that from one barrel of crude oil can be
extracted more petroleum products than exists in that
one barrel! As stated by the site, a barrel of crude
oil contains 42 gallons. From that 42 gallon barrel,
44.6 gallons of various petroleum products can be
processed, distilled, oxengynated, tossed, blended and
pureed! I guess that is just another example of the
the sum of the parts being greater than the whole, and
if 42 gallons represents 100%, it really doesn't mean
anything. In this case, you can say that 42 equals 100%
or you can say 44.6 equals 100%, it just depends on
what you don't want known. I don't know, math has a
way of proving whatever you want it to. [Has anyone
thought about buying stock in those companies that
manufacture barrels?]

Anyway, as you wend your way through these figures,
just tuck into the back of your mind the fact that we
are not accounting for 2.6% of the products that can
be extracted from one 42 barrel of crude oil. So, from
a 42 gallon barrel of crude oil can be processed 19.6
gallons of gasoline, 10 gallons of diesel fuel and
heating oil, 4 gallons of jet fuel, 1.7 gallons of
heavy fuel oil, 1.7 gallons of LPG and 7.6 gallons of
'other' products. Add 'em up, they come to 44.6 gallons,
no matter what anything costs anyone.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/brochure/gas04/gasoline.htm

Of course, that was in 2004 and we generally think
that most companies are constantly trying to figure
out how to get more product for less effort, or cost.
Hopefully, the leaps and bounds in technology has kept
up with all of that gasoline zipping through the
pipelines. Possibly not.

But back to basics. The important point here is that
from one 42 gallon barrel of crude oil you can get 19.6
gallons of gasoline. Again, for every barrel of crude
oil that is taken off of a freighter, rail car OR truck
and processed, you get almost 20 gallons of gasoline,
at or ready for the pump at your local convenience store.
That's not too difficult to understand, is it?

Now, more current figures, 2006, state that U.S.
refineries are bringing in to process 14,508,000 (mil)
barrels of crude oil per day, or 441,285,000 (mil) barrels
per month. [14508 times 365 days in a year divided by
12 months times 1000.] This figure is based on averaging
the available weekly figures for the period of 03/03/06
to 04/07/06. Approximately 441,285,000 (mil) barrels
of crude are received at the refineries each month to
be processed.
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pnp_wiup_dcu_nus_w.htm

So, if 441,285,000 (mil) barrels are being received each
month to be processed and each of those barrels of crude
oil produces 19.6 gallons of gasoline, then 8,649,186,000
(bil) gallons of gasoline is being received each month
by the refineries. Thats 441,285,000 (mil) mulitplied by
the 19.6 gallons that each of those 441,285,000 barrels
contains. I realize that this is "old" math so it may
not be correct by today's standards.

And, the same website that provides the figures of the
amounts received (441,285,000 mil. barrels per month)
also say that only 8,173,000 (mil) barrels are being
produced, daily. That is equal to 248,595,416 (mil)
barrels per month. So, 441,285,000 (mil) barrels, from
which can be extracted 8,649,186,000 (bil) gallons of
gasoline, is being received but the refineries capacity
is only 8,173,000 (mil) barrels daily.
Keeping this on a monthly basis, 8,173,000 barrels (mil)
daily is equal to 2,983,145,000 (bil) a year.
2,983,145,000 (bil) barrels per year is equal to
248,595,416 (mil) barrels per month. From 248,595,416 (mil)
barrels per month is extracted (X 19.6)
4,872,470,153 (bil) gallons per month.

Recap: 441,285,000 (mil) barrels are received per month,
248,595,416 (mil) barrels are processed per month.
That's a backlog of 192,689,584 (mil) barrels per month
that doesn't get processed. Right? So, more than one
half of the barrels being unloaded are being processed.
441,285,000 (mil) barrels of crude received, 248,595,416
(mil) barrels processed.
Does this mean that the oil isn't being processed
because the refineries are spending all of their time
constructing storage buildings or docks for incoming
freighters for the 192,689,584 (mil) barrels per month
that keeps accumulating? Who knows.

According to another websites' figures, a government
website, the citizens of the United States uses or
consumes approximately 10 million barrels of gasoline
per day. But that was in 2004, I guess.
Today's consumption (2006) is more like 59,797,760
(mil) gallons per day, or 1,818,848,533 (bil) gallons
per month going into automobiles, lawn mowers or
power saws, etc., as processed oil. At least, that is
what the figures at the Energy Information Administration
website say that consumers purchased or the oil
companies sold. And they ought to know. The figure of
1,818,848,533 (bil) gallons per month is according to
'sales' of Finished Motor Gasoline.

Well, there you have it. Refineries produce 4,875,470,153
(bil) gallons of gasoline per month and we use
1,818,848,533 (bil) gallons of gasoline per month.
This creates an excess of 3,056,621,620 (bil) gallons
per month of gasoline being produced but not going into
automobiles, lawnmowers, power saws, etc.
Where is the shortage? More importantly and to the point,
where are the 3,056,621,620 (bil) gallons per month going?



Stay tuned for PART II